Bengals vs Steelers – Week 11 2025
CIN
PIT
CIN
AWAY
12@34
PIT BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 12, Pittsburgh Steelers 34.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Bengals, 3 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 63%Our line: PIT -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -4.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.138Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.009 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.025 (16)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (18)
45.5% (11)Offense success %44.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 22. Off by 17.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW3 2026 | CIN 27, PIT 30 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW16 2023 | CIN 11, PIT 34 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.3. The market has PIT at -5.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, CIN 12, PIT 34. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -5.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 11, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.5, 6.0 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 27, PIT 30 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: CIN -0.138 against PIT +0.007.
