CIN @ PIT – Week 11 2025
CIN
PIT
CIN
AWAY
12@34
PIT BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 63%Our line: PIT -4.3
PIT
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.3
OUR LINE
-168
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.138Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.009Offense EPA / play+0.025
+0.130Defense EPA / play+0.018
45.5%Offense success %44.0%
47.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 22. Off by 17.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +205 | -250 |
| Our fair price | +168 | -168 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6 SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6 SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow1809 yd · 17 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown1019 yd · 6 TD
S.Perine382 yd · 3 TD
T.Brooks45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase125 rec · 1412 yd · 8 TD
T.Higgins59 rec · 846 yd · 11 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW16 2023 | CIN 11, PIT 34 | CIN | L |
| PIT@CINW12 2023 | PIT 16, CIN 10 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.3. The market has PIT at -5.5.
The model projects 42.5 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, PIT 31, CIN 33 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: CIN -0.138 against PIT +0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
