CIN @ PIT – Week 3 2026
CIN
PIT
CIN
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
PIT
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: PIT 66%Projected margin: -4.1
PIT
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-4.1
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.138Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.009Offense EPA / play+0.025
+0.130Defense EPA / play+0.018
45.5%Offense success %44.0%
47.8%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT backed by epa edge at 66%.
EPA EDGE
PIT generates 0.025 EPA/play on offense. CIN's defense allows 0.130. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
PIT is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
PIT has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against CIN.
Multiple signals align in PIT's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow1809 yd · 17 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown1019 yd · 6 TD
S.Perine382 yd · 3 TD
T.Brooks45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase125 rec · 1412 yd · 8 TD
T.Higgins59 rec · 846 yd · 11 TD
C.Brown69 rec · 437 yd · 5 TD
A.Iosivas33 rec · 435 yd · 2 TD
VS
1,809PASSyds3,322
1,446RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CINW10 2026 | — | PIT | — |
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs PIT
Who is favored in Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers?
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.1. The market has PIT at +1.5.
When do the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers game?
Pittsburgh Steelers, 12-34 in Week 11 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Cincinnati Bengals or the Pittsburgh Steelers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: CIN -0.138 against PIT +0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
