KC @ MIA – Week 3 2026
KC
MIA
KC
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
MIA
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: MIA 65%Projected margin: -3.6
MIA
PICK SIDE
+7.5
SPREAD
-3.6
PROJ MARGIN
+294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.035Offense EPA / play-0.017
-0.020Defense EPA / play+0.088
44.5%Offense success %41.9%
43.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
MIA is our C-tier play in KC @ MIA (Week 3, 2026). The model assigns 65.0% confidence and projects MIA by 3.6. Market spread sits at MIA +7.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +7.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
150.1SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Kansas City ChiefsPASSING
P.Mahomes3587 yd · 22 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
K.Hunt611 yd · 8 TD
I.Pacheco462 yd · 1 TD
P.Mahomes422 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
T.Kelce76 rec · 851 yd · 5 TD
M.Brown49 rec · 587 yd · 5 TD
R.Rice53 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
X.Worthy42 rec · 532 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,587PASSyds2,660
1,495RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@KCW9 2023 | MIA 14, KC 21 | KC | W |
| KC@MIAW14 2020 | KC 33, MIA 27 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs MIA
Who is favored in Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins?
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 65% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 3.6. The market has MIA at +7.5.
When do the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins game?
Kansas City Chiefs, 14-21 in Week 9 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Kansas City Chiefs or the Miami Dolphins?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.055 against MIA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
