Chiefs vs Dolphins – Week 3 2026
KC
MIA
KC
AWAY
24@10
KC BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chiefs, 3 Dolphins.
Model confidence: KC 63%Our line: KC -4.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
Early season: 4 games played for at least one team. These numbers and ranks will move fast.
+0.222Net EPA / play-0.224
+0.172 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (29)
-0.050 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.108 (28)
48.6% (5)Offense success %37.6%
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 4.4. Actual: 14. Off by 9.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@KCW9 2023 | MIA 14, KC 21 | KC | W |
| KC@MIAW14 2020 | KC 33, MIA 27 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs MIA
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 4.4. The market has KC at -10.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 24, MIA 10. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -10.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 3, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 0.0 above the market, which our board calls an push.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, MIA 14, KC 21 in Week 9 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.222 against MIA -0.224.
