LV @ NO – Week 3 2026
LV
NO
LV
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
NO
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: NO 74%Projected margin: -7.3
NO
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-7.3
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.240Net EPA / play-0.029
-0.215Offense EPA / play-0.088
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.059
37.6%Offense success %42.0%
45.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on NO at 74% confidence.
EPA EDGE
NO generates -0.088 EPA/play on offense. LV's defense allows 0.024. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
NO is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
NO goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 7.3-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in NO's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Smith3025 yd · 19 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
A.Jeanty975 yd · 5 TD
G.Smith109 yd · 0 TD
R.Mostert104 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Tucker57 rec · 696 yd · 5 TD
B.Bowers64 rec · 680 yd · 7 TD
J.Meyers33 rec · 352 yd · 0 TD
A.Jeanty55 rec · 346 yd · 5 TD
VS
3,025PASSyds2,384
1,188RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NOW17 2024 | LV 25, NO 10 | NO | L |
| LV@NOW8 2022 | LV 0, NO 24 | LV | L |
| NO@LVW2 2020 | NO 24, LV 34 | NO | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs NO
Who is favored in Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints?
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 7.3. The market has NO at -3.5.
When do the Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints game?
Las Vegas Raiders, 25-10 in Week 17 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Las Vegas Raiders or the New Orleans Saints?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New Orleans Saints: LV -0.240 against NO -0.029.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
