Falcons vs Packers – Week 3 2026
ATL
GB
ATL
AWAY
35@14
ATL BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 4 Packers.
A midweek injury update switched the pick from the Packers (61%) to the Falcons (50%).
Model confidence: ATL 50%Our line: ATL +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.012Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.023 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.021 (18)
-0.035 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.039 (11)
46.3% (10)Offense success %40.7% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 21. Off by 21.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@ATLW2 2023 | GB 24, ATL 25 | GB | L |
| ATL@GBW4 2020 | ATL 16, GB 30 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs GB
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 0.0. The market has ATL at +4.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 35, GB 14. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at +4.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 3, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 1.3 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, GB 24, ATL 25 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Green Bay Packers: ATL +0.012 against GB +0.018.
