ATL @ GB – Week 3 2026
ATL
GB
ATL
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
THU 8:15 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
GB
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 59%Projected margin: +0.1
ATL
PICK SIDE
+7.5
SPREAD
+0.1
PROJ MARGIN
+294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.018Net EPA / play+0.082
-0.021Offense EPA / play+0.115
-0.004Defense EPA / play+0.033
43.7%Offense success %47.7%
44.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
ATL is our C-tier play in ATL @ GB (Week 3, 2026). The model assigns 59.3% confidence and projects GB by 0.1. Market spread sits at ATL +7.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +7.5 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
370.8SEASON PPR
K.Pitts
TE
210.8SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
201.9SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
M.Penix1982 yd · 9 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
B.Robinson1478 yd · 7 TD
T.Allgeier514 yd · 8 TD
M.Penix70 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
K.Pitts88 rec · 928 yd · 5 TD
D.London68 rec · 919 yd · 7 TD
B.Robinson79 rec · 820 yd · 4 TD
D.Mooney32 rec · 443 yd · 1 TD
VS
1,982PASSyds3,381
2,062RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@ATLW2 2023 | GB 24, ATL 25 | GB | L |
| ATL@GBW4 2020 | ATL 16, GB 30 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs GB
Who is favored in Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers?
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 0.1. The market has ATL at +7.5.
When do the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Who won the last Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers game?
Atlanta Falcons, 24-25 in Week 2 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Atlanta Falcons or the Green Bay Packers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: ATL -0.018 against GB +0.082.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
