Patriots vs Jaguars – Week 3 2026
NE
JAX
NE
AWAY
6@35
JAX BY 29
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Patriots, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 61%Our line: JAX -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.239
+0.046 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.151 (6)
-0.009 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (3)
45.4% (13)Offense success %46.9% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 29. Off by 25.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 26.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@JAXW7 2024 | NE 16, JAX 32 | JAX | W |
| JAX@NEW17 2021 | JAX 10, NE 50 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.8. The market has JAX at -3.0.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, NE 6, JAX 35. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -3.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 3, the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 0.6 above the market, which our board calls an push.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, NE 16, JAX 32 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: NE +0.055 against JAX +0.239.
