NE @ JAX – Week 3 2026
NE
JAX
NE
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
JAX
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: JAX 62%Projected margin: -2.0
JAX
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-2.0
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.205Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.158Offense EPA / play+0.030
-0.047Defense EPA / play-0.105
48.4%Offense success %44.4%
44.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
JAX is our B-tier play in NE @ JAX (Week 3, 2026). The model assigns 61.9% confidence and projects JAX by 2.0. Market spread sits at JAX -1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
206.2SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
D.Maye4394 yd · 31 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
T.Henderson911 yd · 9 TD
R.Stevenson603 yd · 7 TD
D.Maye450 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
S.Diggs85 rec · 1013 yd · 4 TD
H.Henry60 rec · 768 yd · 7 TD
K.Boutte33 rec · 551 yd · 6 TD
M.Hollins46 rec · 550 yd · 2 TD
VS
4,394PASSyds4,007
1,964RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@JAXW7 2024 | NE 16, JAX 32 | JAX | W |
| JAX@NEW17 2021 | JAX 10, NE 50 | NE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs JAX
Who is favored in New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars?
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 2.0. The market has JAX at -1.5.
When do the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars game?
Jacksonville Jaguars, 16-32 in Week 7 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the New England Patriots or the Jacksonville Jaguars?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against JAX +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
