ARI @ SF – Week 3 2026
ARI
SF
ARI
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
SF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: SF 81%Projected margin: -11.7
SF
PICK SIDE
-11.5
SPREAD
-11.7
PROJ MARGIN
-523
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.018Offense EPA / play+0.088
+0.088Defense EPA / play+0.070
43.0%Offense success %48.3%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
S-tier pick on SF at 81% confidence.
EPA EDGE
SF generates 0.088 EPA/play on offense. ARI's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
S-TIER
S-tier. Only the most extreme edges earn this grade. Historically NoPunt's highest hit-rate tier.
HIGH CONVICTION
SF is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
SF has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against ARI.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 11.7-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in SF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -523 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
J.Brissett3366 yd · 23 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
M.Carter333 yd · 1 TD
E.Demercado312 yd · 0 TD
Z.Knight269 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride126 rec · 1239 yd · 11 TD
Mi.Wilson78 rec · 1006 yd · 7 TD
M.Harrison41 rec · 608 yd · 4 TD
E.Higgins30 rec · 301 yd · 0 TD
VS
3,366PASSyds2,167
914RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@ARIW18 2026 | — | SF | — |
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs SF
Who is favored in Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers?
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project SF by 11.7. The market has SF at -11.5.
When do the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers game?
San Francisco 49ers, 41-22 in Week 11 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Arizona Cardinals or the San Francisco 49ers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: ARI -0.107 against SF +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
