Cardinals vs 49ers – Week 3 2026
ARI
SF
ARI
AWAY
30@36
SF BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 30, San Francisco 49ers 36.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 81% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cardinals, 4 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 81%Our line: SF -12.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.142Net EPA / play+0.276
-0.018 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.209 (2)
+0.124 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
45.9% (12)Offense success %52.7% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 12.1. Actual: 6. Off by 6.1 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
| SF@ARIW15 2023 | SF 45, ARI 29 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project SF by 12.1. The market has SF at -8.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, ARI 30, SF 36. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 81% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -8.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 3, the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 0.1 above the market, which our board calls an push.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 41, ARI 22 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, San Francisco 49ers: ARI -0.142 against SF +0.276.
