SF @ ARI – Week 15 2023
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
45@29
SF BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: SF 75%Our line: SF -9.2
SF
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.2
OUR LINE
-305
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.255Net EPA / play-0.157
+0.174Offense EPA / play-0.071
-0.082Defense EPA / play+0.085
51.1%Offense success %40.5%
41.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 9.2. Actual: 16. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SF | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -750 | +525 |
| Our fair price | -305 | +305 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.17
OUR NUMBER
75%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
85%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
391.3 SEASON PPR
Brock Purdy
QB
295.6 SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
249.2 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Brock Purdy4280 yd · 31 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Christian McCaffrey1459 yd · 14 TD
Elijah Mitchell281 yd · 2 TD
Deebo Samuel Sr.225 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk75 rec · 1342 yd · 7 TD
George Kittle65 rec · 1020 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
| ARI@SFW4 2023 | ARI 16, SF 35 | SF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 9.2. The market has SF at -12.5.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 41, ARI 22 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.255 against ARI -0.157.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
