49ers vs Cardinals – Week 15 2023
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
45@29
SF BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 45, Arizona Cardinals 29.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 49ers, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: SF 75%Our line: SF -9.2
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -12.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -9.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.255Net EPA / play-0.157
+0.174 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.071 (22)
-0.082 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (32)
51.1% (1)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 9.2. Actual: 16. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SFW3 2026 | ARI 30, SF 36 | SF | W |
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs ARI
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 9.2. The market has SF at -12.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 45, ARI 29. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -12.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 12.5 points.
In Week 15, the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 2.5 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, ARI 30, SF 36 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.255 against ARI -0.157.
