Bears vs Browns – Week 15 2023
CHI
CLE
CHI
AWAY
17@20
CLE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 17, Cleveland Browns 20.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 4 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 63%Our line: CLE -4.4
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -4.4
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.007Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.049 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.141 (28)
-0.042 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.186 (1)
41.8% (18)Offense success %38.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CLE by 4.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CHIW15 2025 | CLE 3, CHI 31 | CHI | W |
| CHI@CLEW3 2021 | CHI 6, CLE 26 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 4.4. The market has CLE at -3.0.
Cleveland Browns won, CHI 17, CLE 20. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -3.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 7.3 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CLE 3, CHI 31 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: CHI -0.007 against CLE +0.045.
