CHI @ CLE – Week 15 2023
CHI
CLE
CHI
AWAY
17@20
CLE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 63%Our line: CLE -4.4
CLE
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.4
OUR LINE
-169
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.007Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.049Offense EPA / play-0.141
-0.042Defense EPA / play-0.186
41.8%Offense success %38.9%
41.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CLE by 4.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 |
| Our fair price | +169 | -169 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CHI
DJ Moore
WR
286.5 SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
230.2 SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
181.1 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Justin Fields2562 yd · 16 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Justin Fields657 yd · 4 TD
Khalil Herbert611 yd · 2 TD
D'Onta Foreman425 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore96 rec · 1364 yd · 8 TD
Cole Kmet73 rec · 719 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CHIW15 2025 | CLE 3, CHI 31 | CHI | W |
| CHI@CLEW3 2021 | CHI 6, CLE 26 | CLE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 4.4. The market has CLE at -3.0.
The model projects 45.3 combined points. The market total is 38.0.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CLE 3, CHI 31 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: CHI -0.007 against CLE +0.045.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
