Broncos vs Lions – Week 15 2023
DEN
DET
DEN
AWAY
17@42
DET BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 17, Detroit Lions 42.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 1 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 66%Our line: DET -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -5.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.077Net EPA / play+0.093
-0.058 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (7)
+0.019 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.029 (17)
42.1% (14)Offense success %46.1% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 5.4. Actual: 25. Off by 19.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9 SEASON PPR
190.2 SEASON PPR
179.2 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3070 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@DENW14 2021 | DET 10, DEN 38 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 5.4. The market has DET at -5.5.
Detroit Lions won, DEN 17, DET 42. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -5.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 15, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 3.9 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Denver Broncos, DET 10, DEN 38 in Week 14 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: DEN -0.077 against DET +0.093.
