DEN @ DET – Week 15 2023
DEN
DET
DEN
AWAY
17@42
DET BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 66%Our line: DET -5.4
DET
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.4
OUR LINE
-191
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.077Net EPA / play+0.093
-0.058Offense EPA / play+0.064
+0.019Defense EPA / play-0.029
42.1%Offense success %46.1%
44.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 5.4. Actual: 25. Off by 19.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DEN | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +210 | -258 |
| Our fair price | +191 | -191 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9 SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
190.2 SEASON PPR
Javonte Williams
RB
179.2 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3070 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Javonte Williams774 yd · 3 TD
Jaleel McLaughlin410 yd · 1 TD
Russell Wilson341 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Courtland Sutton59 rec · 772 yd · 10 TD
Jerry Jeudy54 rec · 758 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@DENW14 2021 | DET 10, DEN 38 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 5.4. The market has DET at -5.5.
The model projects 45.1 combined points. The market total is 49.0.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Denver Broncos, DET 10, DEN 38 in Week 14 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: DEN -0.077 against DET +0.093.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
