2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ TEN – Week 15 2023
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
19@16
HOU +3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TEN 57%Projected margin: 0.4
TEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
0.4
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but HOU won. Projected margin was 0.4 -- the model overestimated by 3.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -170 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
167.3SEASON PPR
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES