Texans vs Titans – Week 15 2023
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
19@16
HOU BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 19, Tennessee Titans 16.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Texans, 4 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 57%Our line: TEN -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -2.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.014Net EPA / play-0.055
-0.028 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.047 (18)
-0.043 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (23)
40.9% (23)Offense success %39.7% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but HOU won. Projected margin was 2.3, the model overestimated by 5.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW5 2026 | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 2.3. The market has TEN at -3.0.
Houston Texans won, HOU 19, TEN 16. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -3.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Houston Texans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 6.8 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 26, TEN 3 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.014 against TEN -0.055.
