HOU @ TEN – Week 15 2023
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
19@16
HOU BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 57%Our line: TEN -2.3
TEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.3
OUR LINE
-132
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.014Net EPA / play-0.055
-0.028Offense EPA / play-0.047
-0.043Defense EPA / play+0.007
40.9%Offense success %39.7%
40.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but HOU won. Projected margin was 2.3, the model overestimated by 5.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +142 | -170 |
| Our fair price | +132 | -132 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0 SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4 SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
167.3 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.J. Stroud4108 yd · 23 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary898 yd · 4 TD
Dameon Pierce416 yd · 2 TD
C.J. Stroud167 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Nico Collins80 rec · 1297 yd · 8 TD
Tank Dell47 rec · 709 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 2.3. The market has TEN at -3.0.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 38.0.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 16, TEN 13 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.014 against TEN -0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
