2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ NE – Week 15 2023
KC
NE
KC
AWAY
27@17
KC +10
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: KC 69%Projected margin: -4.5
KC
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
-4.5
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 4.5. Actual: 10. Off by 5.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-10.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -485 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
280.2SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
219.4SEASON PPR
Isiah Pacheco
RB
213.9SEASON PPR
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5SEASON PPR
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
145.7SEASON PPR
Hunter Henry
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES