Chiefs vs Patriots – Week 15 2023
KC
NE
KC
AWAY
27@17
KC BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 27, New England Patriots 17.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chiefs, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: KC 69%Our line: KC -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -6.7
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.107Net EPA / play-0.136
+0.021 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.191 (31)
-0.086 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.055 (12)
43.7% (12)Offense success %38.9% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 10. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-10.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs NE
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 6.7. The market has KC at -10.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 27, NE 17. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -10.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 15, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 5.8 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, NE 10, KC 26 in Week 4 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.107 against NE -0.136.
