Patriots vs Chiefs – Week 4 2020
NE
KC
NE
AWAY
10@26
KC BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 10, Kansas City Chiefs 26.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: KC 58%Our line: KC -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -2.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.076Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.004 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.184 (2)
+0.071 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (19)
46.1% (12)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 16. Off by 13.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Cam Newton2657 yd · 8 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris691 yd · 2 TD
Cam Newton592 yd · 12 TD
Sony Michel449 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers59 rec · 729 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 2.8. The market has KC at -7.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, NE 10, KC 26. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -7.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 4, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 7.0 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, MON 7:05 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 27, NE 17 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: NE -0.076 against KC +0.138.
