SEA @ MIA – Week 4 2020
SEA
MIA
SEA
AWAY
31@23
SEA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 60%Our line: SEA -3.4
SEA
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.4
OUR LINE
-149
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.047Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.087Offense EPA / play+0.007
+0.040Defense EPA / play-0.041
48.2%Offense success %46.0%
45.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 8. Off by 4.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -223 | +196 |
| Our fair price | -149 | +149 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.52
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
67%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SEA
Russell Wilson
QB
359.8 SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
271.3 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
265.4 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson4212 yd · 40 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Chris Carson681 yd · 5 TD
Russell Wilson513 yd · 2 TD
Carlos Hyde356 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf83 rec · 1303 yd · 10 TD
Tyler Lockett100 rec · 1054 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@SEAW3 2024 | MIA 3, SEA 24 | SEA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 3.4. The market has SEA at -4.5.
The model projects 48.0 combined points. The market total is 55.0.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, MIA 3, SEA 24 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: SEA +0.047 against MIA +0.048.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
