Seahawks vs Dolphins – Week 4 2020
SEA
MIA
SEA
AWAY
31@23
SEA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 31, Miami Dolphins 23.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Seahawks, 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: SEA 60%Our line: SEA -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.047Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.087 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (19)
+0.040 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.041 (7)
48.2% (6)Offense success %46.0% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 8. Off by 4.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson4212 yd · 40 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Chris Carson681 yd · 5 TD
Russell Wilson513 yd · 2 TD
Carlos Hyde356 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf83 rec · 1303 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@SEAW3 2024 | MIA 3, SEA 24 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs MIA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 3.4. The market has SEA at -4.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 31, MIA 23. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -4.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 4, the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 7.0 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, MIA 3, SEA 24 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: SEA +0.047 against MIA +0.048.
