Eagles vs 49ers – Week 4 2020
PHI
SF
PHI
AWAY
25@20
PHI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 25, San Francisco 49ers 20.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Eagles, 7 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 62%Our line: SF -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.042
-0.089 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.008 (18)
+0.018 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
40.6% (30)Offense success %46.0% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but PHI won. Projected margin was 4.1, the model overestimated by 9.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PHI
Carson Wentz
QB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Miles Sanders
RB
170.4 SEASON PPR
Greg Ward
WR
133.1 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Carson Wentz2620 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RECEIVING
Travis Fulgham38 rec · 539 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@PHIW13 2023 | SF 42, PHI 19 | PHI | L |
| SF@PHIW2 2021 | SF 17, PHI 11 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.1. The market has SF at -8.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 25, SF 20. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -8.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 4, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 2.4 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 42, PHI 19 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, San Francisco 49ers: PHI -0.107 against SF +0.042.
