2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ SF – Week 4 2020
PHI
SF
PHI
AWAY
25@20
PHI +5
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 62%Projected margin: 4.8
SF
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
4.8
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but PHI won. Projected margin was 4.8 -- the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -320 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PHI
Carson Wentz
QB
198.4SEASON PPR
Miles Sanders
RB
170.4SEASON PPR
Greg Ward
WR
133.1SEASON PPR
SF
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
184.5SEASON PPR
Jeff Wilson
RB
142.3SEASON PPR
Kendrick Bourne
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@PHIW13 2023 | SF 42, PHI 19 | PHI | L |
| SF@PHIW2 2021 | SF 17, PHI 11 | SF | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES