49ers vs Eagles – Week 13 2023
SF
PHI
SF
AWAY
42@19
SF BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 42, Philadelphia Eagles 19.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 56%Our line: PHI -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -2.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.255Net EPA / play+0.005
+0.174 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.054 (8)
-0.082 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.049 (29)
51.1% (1)Offense success %45.9% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI C-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but SF won. Projected margin was 2.2, the model overestimated by 25.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.0 points.
HIGH WIND
44 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
44 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@PHIW2 2021 | SF 17, PHI 11 | SF | W |
| PHI@SFW4 2020 | PHI 25, SF 20 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PHI by 2.2. The market has PHI at +3.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 42, PHI 19. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at +3.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 13, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 1.9 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 17, PHI 11 in Week 2 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.255 against PHI +0.005.
