Dolphins vs Commanders – Week 13 2023
MIA
WAS
MIA
AWAY
45@15
MIA BY 30
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 45, Washington Commanders 15.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: MIA 71%Our line: MIA -7.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -7.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.190
+0.097 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.106 (27)
-0.039 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (31)
47.2% (5)Offense success %41.0% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 7.6. Actual: 30. Off by 22.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@MIAW11 2025 | WAS 13, MIA 16 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs WAS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 7.6. The market has MIA at -8.5.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 45, WAS 15. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -8.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 13, the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 5.4 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, WAS 13, MIA 16 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.136 against WAS -0.190.
