2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ TB – Week 13 2023
CAR
TB
CAR
AWAY
18@21
TB +3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 70%Projected margin: 4.9
TB
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
4.9
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 4.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -198 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CAR
Adam Thielen
WR
231.0SEASON PPR
Chuba Hubbard
RB
182.5SEASON PPR
Bryce Young
QB
156.4SEASON PPR
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES