Cardinals vs Steelers – Week 13 2023
ARI
PIT
ARI
AWAY
24@10
ARI BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 10.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 80% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Cardinals.
Model confidence: PIT 80%Our line: PIT -11.4
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -11.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.157Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.071 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.073 (23)
+0.085 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
40.5% (25)Offense success %42.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT S-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but ARI won. Projected margin was 11.4, the model overestimated by 25.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray1799 yd · 10 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Conner1040 yd · 7 TD
Emari Demercado284 yd · 2 TD
Joshua Dobbs258 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Trey McBride81 rec · 825 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project PIT by 11.4. The market has PIT at -6.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 24, PIT 10. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 80% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 13, the Arizona Cardinals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.5, 1.5 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: ARI -0.157 against PIT -0.013.
