ARI @ PIT – Week 13 2023
ARI
PIT
ARI
AWAY
24@10
ARI BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 80%Our line: PIT -11.4
PIT
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-11.4
OUR LINE
-403
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.157Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.071Offense EPA / play-0.073
+0.085Defense EPA / play-0.060
40.5%Offense success %42.0%
47.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT S-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but ARI won. Projected margin was 11.4, the model overestimated by 25.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +230 | -285 |
| Our fair price | +403 | -403 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
80%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ARI
James Conner
RB
201.5 SEASON PPR
Trey McBride
TE
181.5 SEASON PPR
Kyler Murray
QB
146.4 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray1799 yd · 10 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Conner1040 yd · 7 TD
Emari Demercado284 yd · 2 TD
Joshua Dobbs258 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Trey McBride81 rec · 825 yd · 3 TD
Marquise Brown51 rec · 574 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project PIT by 11.4. The market has PIT at -6.0.
The model projects 42.5 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: ARI -0.157 against PIT -0.013.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
