CAR @ TB – Week 12 2026
CAR
TB
CAR
AWAY
@
MON 8:15 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
TB
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: TB 63%Projected margin: -2.4
TB
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-2.4
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.022
-0.039Offense EPA / play-0.009
+0.067Defense EPA / play+0.013
43.1%Offense success %42.4%
44.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors TB at 63%.
H2H EDGE
TB has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against CAR.
RED ZONE
TB converts 76% in the red zone vs 55% for CAR. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for TB. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | TB market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
213.4SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
B.Young3011 yd · 23 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
R.Dowdle1076 yd · 6 TD
C.Hubbard511 yd · 1 TD
B.Young216 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
T.McMillan70 rec · 1014 yd · 7 TD
J.Coker33 rec · 394 yd · 3 TD
X.Legette35 rec · 363 yd · 3 TD
R.Dowdle39 rec · 297 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,011PASSyds3,693
1,803RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@CARW7 2026 | — | CAR | — |
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs TB
Who is favored in Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63% win probability. The margin models project TB by 2.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play?
Week 12 of the 2026 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Who won the last Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 14-16 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Carolina Panthers or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CAR -0.107 against TB -0.022.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
