TEN @ JAX – Week 12 2026
TEN
JAX
TEN
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
JAX
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: JAX 83%Projected margin: -12.2
JAX
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-12.2
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.260Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.160Offense EPA / play+0.030
+0.100Defense EPA / play-0.105
37.4%Offense success %44.4%
45.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: JAX at 83%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
JAX generates 0.030 EPA/play on offense. TEN's defense allows 0.100. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
JAX has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against TEN.
DRIVE EFF
JAX scores 2.0 points per drive vs 1.0 for TEN. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 12.2-point margin.
Multiple signals align in JAX's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | JAX market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
C.Ward3169 yd · 15 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1082 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears283 yd · 2 TD
C.Ward159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
C.Okonkwo56 rec · 560 yd · 2 TD
E.Ayomanor41 rec · 515 yd · 4 TD
C.Dike48 rec · 423 yd · 4 TD
G.Helm44 rec · 357 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,169PASSyds4,007
1,524RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@TENW10 2026 | — | JAX | — |
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs JAX
Who is favored in Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars?
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 83% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 12.2. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars play?
Week 12 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars game?
Jacksonville Jaguars, 7-41 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Tennessee Titans or the Jacksonville Jaguars?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: TEN -0.260 against JAX +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
