Titans vs Jaguars – Week 12 2026
TEN
JAX
TEN
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Jaguars over the Titans at 85% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: JAX 85%Our line: JAX -14.1
80% range around our line: TEN by 3 to JAX by 31. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the JAX game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -14.1
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
85%
JAX · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
68%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
| SPORTSBOOK | TEN | JAX | JAX WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 12 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.228Net EPA / play+0.239
-0.149 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.151 (6)
+0.078 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (3)
40.5% (25)Offense success %46.9% (9)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: JAX at 85%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
JAX generates 0.151 EPA/play on offense. TEN's defense allows 0.078. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
JAX has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against TEN.
RED ZONE
JAX converts 82% in the red zone vs 45% for TEN. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
JAX scores 2.1 points per drive vs 0.9 for TEN. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 14.1-point margin.
Multiple signals align in JAX's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 85% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 14.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 85% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 12 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: TEN -0.228 against JAX +0.239.
