Patriots vs Chargers – Week 12 2026
NE
LAC
NE
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Patriots over the Chargers at 74% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: NE 74%Our line: NE -8.8
80% range around our line: LAC by 8 to NE by 26. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the NE game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
NE —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -8.8
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
NE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
47%
DIFFERENCE
+27%
| SPORTSBOOK | NE | LAC | NE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 12 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.150
+0.046 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.207 (32)
-0.009 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.057 (6)
45.4% (13)Offense success %37.8% (29)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: NE at 74%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
NE generates 0.046 EPA/play on offense. LAC's defense allows -0.057. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
DRIVE EFF
NE scores 1.6 points per drive vs 1.1 for LAC. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.8-point margin.
Multiple signals align in NE's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@NEW17 2024 | LAC 40, NE 7 | LAC | W |
| LAC@NEW13 2023 | LAC 6, NE 0 | LAC | W |
| NE@LACW8 2021 | NE 27, LAC 24 | LAC | L |
| NE@LACW13 2020 | NE 45, LAC 0 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs LAC
Our model takes New England Patriots at 74% win probability. The margin models project NE by 8.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors New England Patriots at 74% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 12 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 40, NE 7 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.055 against LAC -0.150.
