GB @ LA – Week 12 2026
GB
LA
GB
AWAY
@
WED 8:00 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
LA
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: LA 73%Projected margin: -6.5
LA
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-6.5
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.082Net EPA / play+0.206
+0.115Offense EPA / play+0.145
+0.033Defense EPA / play-0.061
47.7%Offense success %51.8%
44.8%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
LA backed by epa edge at 73%.
EPA EDGE
LA generates 0.145 EPA/play on offense. GB's defense allows 0.033. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
LA is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
LA goes for it on 4th down 29% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
LA scores 2.5 points per drive vs 2.0 for GB. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in LA's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
237.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
235.1SEASON PPR
R.Doubs
WR
165.4SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love3381 yd · 23 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
J.Jacobs929 yd · 13 TD
E.Wilson496 yd · 3 TD
J.Love199 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
R.Doubs55 rec · 724 yd · 6 TD
C.Watson35 rec · 611 yd · 6 TD
T.Kraft32 rec · 489 yd · 6 TD
M.Golden29 rec · 361 yd · 0 TD
VS
3,381PASSyds4,707
1,624RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@LAW5 2024 | GB 24, LA 19 | GB | W |
| LA@GBW9 2023 | LA 3, GB 20 | GB | W |
| LA@GBW15 2022 | LA 12, GB 24 | GB | W |
| LA@GBW12 2021 | LA 28, GB 36 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs LA
Who is favored in Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams?
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project LA by 6.5. The market has LA at -5.5.
When do the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams play?
Week 12 of the 2026 season, WED 8:00 PM.
Who won the last Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams game?
Green Bay Packers, 24-19 in Week 5 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Green Bay Packers or the Los Angeles Rams?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: GB +0.082 against LA +0.206.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
