Rams vs Packers – Week 12 2021
LA
GB
LA
AWAY
28@36
GB BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 28, Green Bay Packers 36.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 56%Our line: GB -2.0
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -2.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.102Net EPA / play+0.127
+0.077 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.134 (3)
-0.025 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (16)
46.4% (11)Offense success %48.6% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 2.0. Actual: 8. Off by 6.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Matthew Stafford4886 yd · 41 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
Sony Michel845 yd · 4 TD
Darrell Henderson688 yd · 5 TD
Robert Woods46 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@LAW5 2024 | GB 24, LA 19 | GB | W |
| LA@GBW9 2023 | LA 3, GB 20 | GB | W |
| LA@GBW15 2022 | LA 12, GB 24 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 2.0. The market has GB at +2.0.
Green Bay Packers won, LA 28, GB 36. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +2.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 12, the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 0.6 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 24, LA 19 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: LA +0.102 against GB +0.127.
