Raiders vs Cowboys – Week 12 2021
LV
DAL
LV
AWAY
36@33
LV BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 36, Dallas Cowboys 33.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: DAL 60%Our line: DAL -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -3.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.187
-0.019 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.096 (5)
+0.045 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
44.9% (13)Offense success %47.0% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but LV won. Projected margin was 3.5, the model overestimated by 6.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4804 yd · 23 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
Hunter Renfrow103 rec · 1038 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@LVW11 2025 | DAL 33, LV 16 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 3.5. The market has DAL at -7.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 36, DAL 33. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -7.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 12, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.8, 2.2 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, THU 4:30 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 33, LV 16 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: LV -0.064 against DAL +0.187.
