Browns vs Ravens – Week 12 2021
CLE
BAL
CLE
AWAY
10@16
BAL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 10, Baltimore Ravens 16.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns, 3 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 54%Our line: BAL -1.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -1.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.012Net EPA / play-0.065
+0.013 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (19)
+0.001 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (27)
43.9% (19)Offense success %46.4% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 1.4. Actual: 6. Off by 4.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW6 2026 | BAL 10, CLE 13 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 1.4. The market has BAL at -3.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, CLE 10, BAL 16. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -3.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 0.7 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Cleveland Browns, BAL 10, CLE 13 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.012 against BAL -0.065.
