2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CLE @ BAL – Week 12 2021
CLE
BAL
CLE
AWAY
10@16
BAL +6
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 54%Projected margin: 2.1
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
2.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 6. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -156 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
0 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
215.3SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Jarvis Landry
WR
133.0SEASON PPR
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES