2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ CIN – Week 12 2021
PIT
CIN
PIT
AWAY
10@41
CIN +31
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CIN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: CIN 50%Projected margin: -0.3
CIN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-0.3
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 0.3. Actual: 31. Off by 31.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 27.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -172 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1SEASON PPR
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW16 2023 | CIN 11, PIT 34 | CIN | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES