Steelers vs Bengals – Week 12 2021
PIT
CIN
PIT
AWAY
10@41
CIN BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 10, Cincinnati Bengals 41.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers, 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 50%Our line: CIN +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.090Net EPA / play+0.069
-0.074 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.057 (12)
+0.016 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (13)
39.1% (31)Offense success %44.2% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 31. Off by 31.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 27.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4 SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3740 yd · 22 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1200 yd · 7 TD
Benny Snell98 yd · 0 TD
Chase Claypool96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson107 rec · 1161 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW3 2026 | CIN 27, PIT 30 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 0.0. The market has CIN at -3.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, PIT 10, CIN 41. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 12, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.3, 4.8 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 27, PIT 30 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: PIT -0.090 against CIN +0.069.
