Titans vs Patriots – Week 12 2021
TEN
NE
TEN
AWAY
13@36
NE BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 13, New England Patriots 36.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Titans.
Model confidence: NE 55%Our line: NE -1.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -1.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.135
+0.022 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (11)
-0.033 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.066 (5)
44.6% (15)Offense success %48.4% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 1.7. Actual: 23. Off by 21.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
6 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3734 yd · 21 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@TENW7 2025 | NE 31, TEN 13 | NE | W |
| NE@TENW9 2024 | NE 17, TEN 20 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 1.7. The market has NE at -7.5.
New England Patriots won, TEN 13, NE 36. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -7.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 12, the Tennessee Titans were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.7, 6.7 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 31, TEN 13 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: TEN +0.055 against NE +0.135.
