Panthers vs Dolphins – Week 12 2021
CAR
MIA
CAR
AWAY
10@33
MIA BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 10, Miami Dolphins 33.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Panthers, 3 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 52%Our line: MIA -0.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -0.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.093Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.138 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (22)
-0.044 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.028 (10)
40.9% (27)Offense success %41.3% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 23. Off by 22.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@CARW5 2025 | MIA 24, CAR 27 | CAR | W |
| CAR@MIAW6 2023 | CAR 21, MIA 42 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 0.6. The market has MIA at +1.0.
Miami Dolphins won, CAR 10, MIA 33. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at +1.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 12, the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 5.8 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, MIA 24, CAR 27 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Miami Dolphins: CAR -0.093 against MIA -0.031.
