2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ MIA – Week 12 2021
CAR
MIA
CAR
AWAY
10@33
MIA +23
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 52%Projected margin: 0.4
MIA
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
0.4
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 0.4. Actual: 23. Off by 22.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +108 | Won · +$1.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
138.5SEASON PPR
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@CARW5 2025 | MIA 24, CAR 27 | CAR | W |
| CAR@MIAW6 2023 | CAR 21, MIA 42 | MIA | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES