Dolphins vs Panthers – Week 5 2025
MIA
CAR
MIA
AWAY
24@27
CAR BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 24, Carolina Panthers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 4 Panthers.
Model confidence: CAR 58%Our line: CAR -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
CAR +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CAR -2.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CAR · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.105Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.017 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.039 (26)
+0.088 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.067 (23)
41.9% (27)Offense success %43.1% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CAR by 2.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@MIAW6 2023 | CAR 21, MIA 42 | MIA | W |
| CAR@MIAW12 2021 | CAR 10, MIA 33 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs CAR
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CAR by 2.7. The market has CAR at +1.5.
Carolina Panthers won, MIA 24, CAR 27. Our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Carolina Panthers at +1.5, meaning the book expects Carolina Panthers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 5, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 0.3 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, CAR 21, MIA 42 in Week 6 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.105 against CAR -0.107.
