DEN @ PHI – Week 5 2025
DEN
PHI
DEN
AWAY
21@17
DEN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 70%Our line: PHI -7.1
PHI
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.1
OUR LINE
-235
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.105
+0.050Offense EPA / play+0.026
-0.088Defense EPA / play-0.079
44.2%Offense success %43.1%
36.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but DEN won. Projected margin was 7.1, the model overestimated by 11.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DEN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +180 | -218 |
| Our fair price | +235 | -235 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
66%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8 SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7 SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
B.Nix3931 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins772 yd · 4 TD
R.Harvey540 yd · 7 TD
B.Nix356 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
C.Sutton74 rec · 1017 yd · 7 TD
T.Franklin65 rec · 709 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DENW10 2021 | PHI 30, DEN 13 | DEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 7.1. The market has PHI at -3.5.
The model projects 46.8 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 30, DEN 13 in Week 10 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against PHI +0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
