2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ PHI – Week 5 2025
DEN
PHI
DEN
AWAY
21@17
DEN +4
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 70%Projected margin: 5.5
PHI
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but DEN won. Projected margin was 5.5 -- the model overestimated by 9.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
PHI
J.Hurts
QB
301.1SEASON PPR
S.Barkley
RB
232.3SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DENW10 2021 | PHI 30, DEN 13 | DEN | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES