Broncos vs Eagles – Week 5 2025
DEN
PHI
DEN
AWAY
21@17
DEN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 21, Philadelphia Eagles 17.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos, 1 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 70%Our line: PHI -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -7.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.105
+0.050 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.026 (15)
-0.088 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.079 (8)
44.2% (16)Offense success %43.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but DEN won. Projected margin was 7.1, the model overestimated by 11.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DENW10 2021 | PHI 30, DEN 13 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 7.1. The market has PHI at -3.5.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 21, PHI 17. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -3.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 5, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 2.3 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 30, DEN 13 in Week 10 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against PHI +0.105.
