2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ DEN – Week 10 2021
PHI
DEN
PHI
AWAY
30@13
PHI +17
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 52%Projected margin: 1.1
DEN
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
1.1
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but PHI won. Projected margin was 1.1 -- the model overestimated by 18.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -111 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
165.0SEASON PPR
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@PHIW5 2025 | DEN 21, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES