PHI @ DEN – Week 10 2021
PHI
DEN
PHI
AWAY
30@13
PHI BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 52%Our line: DEN -0.8
DEN
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.8
OUR LINE
-110
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.004
+0.070Offense EPA / play+0.015
+0.011Defense EPA / play+0.011
46.9%Offense success %44.7%
46.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but PHI won. Projected margin was 0.8, the model overestimated by 17.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +101 | -111 |
| Our fair price | +110 | -110 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
51%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2 SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6 SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
165.0 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Jalen Hurts3144 yd · 16 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Jalen Hurts784 yd · 10 TD
Miles Sanders754 yd · 0 TD
Jordan Howard406 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
DeVonta Smith64 rec · 916 yd · 5 TD
Dallas Goedert56 rec · 830 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@PHIW5 2025 | DEN 21, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 0.8. The market has DEN at -1.0.
The model projects 47.3 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 21, PHI 17 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.059 against DEN +0.004.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
