Eagles vs Broncos – Week 10 2021
PHI
DEN
PHI
AWAY
30@13
PHI BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 30, Denver Broncos 13.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 52%Our line: DEN -0.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -0.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.004
+0.070 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
+0.011 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (18)
46.9% (8)Offense success %44.7% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but PHI won. Projected margin was 0.8, the model overestimated by 17.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@PHIW5 2025 | DEN 21, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 0.8. The market has DEN at -1.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 30, DEN 13. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at -1.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 10, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 2.8 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 21, PHI 17 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.059 against DEN +0.004.
