MIN @ LAC – Week 10 2021
MIN
LAC
MIN
AWAY
27@20
MIN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 53%Our line: LAC -1.0
LAC
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.0
OUR LINE
-113
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.017Offense EPA / play+0.095
-0.018Defense EPA / play+0.033
41.4%Offense success %47.6%
45.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but MIN won. Projected margin was 1.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -179 |
| Our fair price | +113 | -113 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
53%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
330.4 SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
300.3 SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
206.3 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins4221 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Dalvin Cook1159 yd · 6 TD
Alexander Mattison491 yd · 3 TD
Kirk Cousins115 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson108 rec · 1616 yd · 10 TD
Adam Thielen67 rec · 726 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@LACW8 2025 | MIN 10, LAC 37 | LAC | W |
| LAC@MINW3 2023 | LAC 28, MIN 24 | MIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 1.0. The market has LAC at -3.0.
The model projects 47.3 combined points. The market total is 53.5.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, MIN 10, LAC 37 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: MIN +0.035 against LAC +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
