Vikings vs Chargers – Week 10 2021
MIN
LAC
MIN
AWAY
27@20
MIN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 27, Los Angeles Chargers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings, 3 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 53%Our line: LAC -1.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -1.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.017 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (6)
-0.018 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (24)
41.4% (24)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but MIN won. Projected margin was 1.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@LACW8 2025 | MIN 10, LAC 37 | LAC | W |
| LAC@MINW3 2023 | LAC 28, MIN 24 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 1.0. The market has LAC at -3.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 27, LAC 20. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 10, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 6.2 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, MIN 10, LAC 37 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: MIN +0.035 against LAC +0.061.
