Lions vs Steelers – Week 10 2021
DET
PIT
DET
AWAY
16@16
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers tied, 16-16.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 74% win probability, and the pick pushed.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions, 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 74%Our line: PIT -8.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -9.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -8.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.161Net EPA / play-0.090
-0.063 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (25)
+0.098 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (19)
42.0% (22)Offense success %39.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT S-tier pick ends in a tie, a push, not a loss.
PUSH
The game ended in a tie, 16-16. Neither side took it. The pick is graded a push, not a loss.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
This one ended in a tie, a push. Ties sit out of the win rate; they are not counted as losses.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@DETW16 2025 | PIT 29, DET 24 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 74% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project PIT by 8.7. The market has PIT at -9.0.
Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers tied, DET 16, PIT 16. Going in, our model favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 74% win probability.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -9.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 9.0 points.
In Week 10, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 2.6 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 29, DET 24 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: DET -0.161 against PIT -0.090.
