DET @ PIT – Week 10 2021
DET
PIT
DET
AWAY
16@16
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 74%Our line: PIT -8.7
PIT
PICK SIDE
-9.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.7
OUR LINE
-286
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.161Net EPA / play-0.090
-0.063Offense EPA / play-0.074
+0.098Defense EPA / play+0.016
42.0%Offense success %39.1%
46.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT S-tier pick ends in a tie, a push, not a loss.
PUSH
The game ended in a tie, 16-16. Neither side took it. The pick is graded a push, not a loss.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
This one ended in a tie, a push. Ties sit out of the win rate; they are not counted as losses.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +303 | -359 |
| Our fair price | +286 | -286 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -9.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost
OUR NUMBER
74%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3 SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9 SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Jared Goff3245 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
D'Andre Swift617 yd · 5 TD
Jamaal Williams601 yd · 3 TD
Craig Reynolds230 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Amon-Ra St. Brown90 rec · 912 yd · 5 TD
T.J. Hockenson61 rec · 583 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@DETW16 2025 | PIT 29, DET 24 | DET | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 74% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project PIT by 8.7. The market has PIT at -9.0.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 29, DET 24 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: DET -0.161 against PIT -0.090.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
