2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ PIT – Week 10 2021
DET
PIT
DET
AWAY
16@16
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER S
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 74%Projected margin: 11.9
PIT
PICK SIDE
-9.0
SPREAD
11.9
PROJ MARGIN
-365
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT S-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but DET won. Projected margin was 11.9 -- the model overestimated by 11.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.0 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -365 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -359 | Lost |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5SEASON PPR
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@DETW16 2025 | PIT 29, DET 24 | DET | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES