2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ LV – Week 10 2021
KC
LV
KC
AWAY
41@14
KC +27
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 56%Projected margin: -3.3
KC
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-3.3
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 27. Off by 23.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -147 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
262.8SEASON PPR
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES