Rams vs 49ers – Week 10 2021
LA
SF
LA
AWAY
10@31
SF BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 10, San Francisco 49ers 31.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams, 5 49ers.
Model confidence: LA 65%Our line: LA -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -5.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.102Net EPA / play+0.120
+0.077 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.087 (7)
-0.025 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
46.4% (11)Offense success %45.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but SF won. Projected margin was 5.1, the model overestimated by 26.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 24.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Matthew Stafford4886 yd · 41 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
Sony Michel845 yd · 4 TD
Darrell Henderson688 yd · 5 TD
Robert Woods46 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@LAW1 2026 | SF 27, LA 7 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs SF
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 5.1. The market has LA at -3.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, LA 10, SF 31. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 10, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.8, 1.2 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 27, LA 7 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: LA +0.102 against SF +0.120.
