2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ SF – Week 10 2021
LA
SF
LA
AWAY
10@31
SF +21
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LA 65%Projected margin: -5.8
LA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-5.8
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but SF won. Projected margin was 5.8 -- the model overestimated by 26.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 24.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -177 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
0 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LA
Cooper Kupp
WR
439.5SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
329.7SEASON PPR
Van Jefferson
WR
168.2SEASON PPR
SF
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR
339.0SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5SEASON PPR
George Kittle
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
| LA@SFW18 2023 | LA 21, SF 20 | SF | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES