2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ SF – Week 15 2024
LA
SF
LA
AWAY
12@6
LA +6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LA 50%Projected margin: 0.7
LA
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
0.7
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 0.7. Actual: 6. Off by 6.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +130 | Won · +$1.54 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LA
K.Williams
RB
272.1SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
214.6SEASON PPR
P.Nacua
WR
206.6SEASON PPR
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
| LA@SFW18 2023 | LA 21, SF 20 | SF | L |
| SF@LAW2 2023 | SF 30, LA 23 | SF | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES