Rams vs 49ers – Week 15 2024
LA
SF
LA
AWAY
12@6
LA BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 12, San Francisco 49ers 6.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Rams, 3 49ers.
Model confidence: LA 50%Our line: LA +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LA +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.030Net EPA / play+0.028
+0.014 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (10)
+0.044 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.041 (23)
46.8% (10)Offense success %46.1% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 6. Off by 6.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@LAW1 2026 | SF 27, LA 7 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
| LA@SFW18 2023 | LA 21, SF 20 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs SF
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 0.0. The market has LA at +3.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 12, SF 6. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at +3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Los Angeles Rams were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 3.0 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 27, LA 7 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, San Francisco 49ers: LA -0.030 against SF +0.028.
