Bengals vs Titans – Week 15 2024
CIN
TEN
CIN
AWAY
37@27
CIN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 37, Tennessee Titans 27.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 65%Our line: CIN -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -5.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.053Net EPA / play-0.146
+0.090 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (30)
+0.037 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.030 (21)
47.2% (9)Offense success %39.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 10. Off by 4.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@TENW4 2023 | CIN 3, TEN 27 | CIN | L |
| CIN@TENW12 2022 | CIN 20, TEN 16 | TEN | L |
| TEN@CINW8 2020 | TEN 20, CIN 31 | TEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs TEN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 5.2. The market has CIN at -6.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 37, TEN 27. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -6.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 15, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.0, 2.5 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, CIN 3, TEN 27 in Week 4 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.053 against TEN -0.146.
