CIN @ TEN – Week 4 2023
CIN
TEN
CIN
AWAY
3@27
TEN BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 75%Our line: CIN -9.3
CIN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.3
OUR LINE
-308
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.044Net EPA / play-0.055
-0.010Offense EPA / play-0.047
+0.034Defense EPA / play+0.007
44.0%Offense success %39.7%
46.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but TEN won. Projected margin was 9.3, the model overestimated by 33.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 26.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -162 | +136 |
| Our fair price | -308 | +308 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
75%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
+16%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
Joe Mixon
RB
267.0 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
262.7 SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
147.2 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow2309 yd · 15 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon1034 yd · 9 TD
Chase Brown179 yd · 0 TD
Jake Browning127 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase100 rec · 1216 yd · 7 TD
Tyler Boyd67 rec · 667 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@TENW15 2024 | CIN 37, TEN 27 | CIN | W |
| CIN@TENW12 2022 | CIN 20, TEN 16 | TEN | L |
| TEN@CINW8 2020 | TEN 20, CIN 31 | TEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 75% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project CIN by 9.3. The market has CIN at -2.5.
The model projects 46.8 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 37, TEN 27 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN -0.044 against TEN -0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
