2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ TEN – Week 4 2023
CIN
TEN
CIN
AWAY
3@27
TEN +24
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER A
PICK: CIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CIN 75%Projected margin: -6.8
CIN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-6.8
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but TEN won. Projected margin was 6.8 -- the model overestimated by 30.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 26.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -162 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
Joe Mixon
RB
267.0SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
262.7SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
147.2SEASON PPR
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@TENW15 2024 | CIN 37, TEN 27 | CIN | W |
| CIN@TENW12 2022 | CIN 20, TEN 16 | TEN | L |
| TEN@CINW8 2020 | TEN 20, CIN 31 | TEN | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES