Bengals vs Titans – Week 4 2023
CIN
TEN
CIN
AWAY
3@27
TEN BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 3, Tennessee Titans 27.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 4 Titans.
Model confidence: CIN 75%Our line: CIN -9.3
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -9.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.044Net EPA / play-0.055
-0.010 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.047 (18)
+0.034 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (23)
44.0% (10)Offense success %39.7% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but TEN won. Projected margin was 9.3, the model overestimated by 33.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 26.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@TENW15 2024 | CIN 37, TEN 27 | CIN | W |
| CIN@TENW12 2022 | CIN 20, TEN 16 | TEN | L |
| TEN@CINW8 2020 | TEN 20, CIN 31 | TEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs TEN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 75% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project CIN by 9.3. The market has CIN at -2.5.
Tennessee Titans won, CIN 3, TEN 27. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -2.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 5.3 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 37, TEN 27 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN -0.044 against TEN -0.055.
