Commanders vs Eagles – Week 4 2023
WAS
PHI
WAS
AWAY
31@34
PHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 31, Philadelphia Eagles 34.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders, 2 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 74%Our line: PHI -8.8
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -8.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.190Net EPA / play+0.005
-0.106 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.054 (8)
+0.085 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.049 (29)
41.0% (21)Offense success %45.9% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 8.8. Actual: 3. Off by 5.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Sam Howell3946 yd · 21 TD · 21 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin79 rec · 1002 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW1 2026 | WAS 22, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PHI by 8.8. The market has PHI at -9.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, WAS 31, PHI 34. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -9.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 4, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 3.7 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, WAS 22, PHI 24 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Philadelphia Eagles: WAS -0.190 against PHI +0.005.
