2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ PHI – Week 4 2023
WAS
PHI
WAS
AWAY
31@34
PHI +3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: PHI
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 74%Projected margin: 7.2
PHI
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
7.2
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 3. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -455 | Won · +$0.26 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
WAS
Sam Howell
QB
257.5SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
203.2SEASON PPR
Brian Robinson
RB
198.1SEASON PPR
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
356.8SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
289.6SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW8 2023 | PHI 38, WAS 31 | PHI | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES