2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ NO – Week 4 2023
TB
NO
TB
AWAY
26@9
TB +17
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 60%Projected margin: -0.1
TB
PICK SIDE
+4.0
SPREAD
-0.1
PROJ MARGIN
+178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 0.1. Actual: 17. Off by 16.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +4.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +170 | Won · +$1.78 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
No noteworthy trends
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
267.9SEASON PPR
NO
Derek Carr
QB
241.1SEASON PPR
Alvin Kamara
RB
233.0SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES