Buccaneers vs Saints – Week 4 2023
TB
NO
TB
AWAY
26@9
TB BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26, New Orleans Saints 9.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers, 3 Saints.
Model confidence: TB 60%Our line: TB -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TB +4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.086
-0.017 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.014 (13)
-0.024 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (5)
39.6% (27)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 17. Off by 13.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs NO
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 3.3. The market has TB at +4.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 26, NO 9. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +4.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 4, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 6.0 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 24, TB 20 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: TB +0.007 against NO +0.086.
