Seahawks vs Giants – Week 4 2023
SEA
NYG
SEA
AWAY
24@3
SEA BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 24, New York Giants 3.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Seahawks, 2 Giants.
Model confidence: SEA 64%Our line: SEA -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -4.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.035Net EPA / play-0.155
+0.016 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.174 (29)
+0.051 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.019 (19)
43.9% (11)Offense success %37.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 21. Off by 16.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@SEAW5 2024 | NYG 29, SEA 20 | SEA | L |
| NYG@SEAW8 2022 | NYG 13, SEA 27 | SEA | W |
| NYG@SEAW13 2020 | NYG 17, SEA 12 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs NYG
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 4.9. The market has SEA at -2.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 24, NYG 3. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -2.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Seattle Seahawks were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 0.1 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
New York Giants, NYG 29, SEA 20 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA -0.035 against NYG -0.155.
