SEA @ NYG – Week 4 2023
SEA
NYG
SEA
AWAY
24@3
SEA BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 64%Our line: SEA -4.9
SEA
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.9
OUR LINE
-179
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.035Net EPA / play-0.155
+0.016Offense EPA / play-0.174
+0.051Defense EPA / play-0.019
43.9%Offense success %37.9%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 21. Off by 16.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -142 | +120 |
| Our fair price | -179 | +179 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
227.3 SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
202.4 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Geno Smith3624 yd · 20 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Kenneth Walker III905 yd · 8 TD
Zach Charbonnet462 yd · 1 TD
Geno Smith155 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf66 rec · 1114 yd · 8 TD
Tyler Lockett79 rec · 894 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@SEAW5 2024 | NYG 29, SEA 20 | SEA | L |
| NYG@SEAW8 2022 | NYG 13, SEA 27 | SEA | W |
| NYG@SEAW13 2020 | NYG 17, SEA 12 | SEA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 4.9. The market has SEA at -2.5.
The model projects 46.4 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
New York Giants, NYG 29, SEA 20 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA -0.035 against NYG -0.155.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
