2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ IND – Week 4 2023
LA
IND
LA
AWAY
29@23
LA +6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LA 50%Projected margin: 0.3
LA
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
0.3
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 0.3. Actual: 6. Off by 6.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -115 | Won · +$0.87 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
Puka Nacua
WR
298.5SEASON PPR
Kyren Williams
RB
255.0SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
243.1SEASON PPR
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@LAW4 2025 | IND 20, LA 27 | LA | W |
| LA@INDW2 2021 | LA 27, IND 24 | LA | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES