Rams vs Colts – Week 4 2023
LA
IND
LA
AWAY
29@23
LA BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 29, Indianapolis Colts 23.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts.
Model confidence: LA 50%Our line: LA +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.019
+0.039 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (16)
-0.009 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.017 (21)
44.7% (8)Offense success %40.8% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 6. Off by 6.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@LAW4 2025 | IND 20, LA 27 | LA | W |
| LA@INDW2 2021 | LA 27, IND 24 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs IND
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 0.0. The market has LA at -1.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 29, IND 23. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -1.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 4, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.5, 0.0 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, IND 20, LA 27 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.048 against IND -0.019.
