LA @ IND – Week 4 2023
LA
IND
LA
AWAY
29@23
LA BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: LA 50%Our line: LA +0.0
LA
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.019
+0.039Offense EPA / play-0.035
-0.009Defense EPA / play-0.017
44.7%Offense success %40.8%
42.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 6. Off by 6.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -115 | -105 |
| Our fair price | +100 | -100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.87
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
51%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
Puka Nacua
WR
298.5 SEASON PPR
Kyren Williams
RB
255.0 SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
243.1 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Matthew Stafford3965 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Kyren Williams1144 yd · 12 TD
Royce Freeman319 yd · 2 TD
Ronnie Rivers129 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Puka Nacua105 rec · 1486 yd · 6 TD
Cooper Kupp59 rec · 737 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@LAW4 2025 | IND 20, LA 27 | LA | W |
| LA@INDW2 2021 | LA 27, IND 24 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 0.0. The market has LA at -1.0.
The model projects 44.5 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, IND 20, LA 27 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.048 against IND -0.019.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
