Rams vs Colts – Week 2 2021
LA
IND
LA
AWAY
27@24
LA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 27, Indianapolis Colts 24.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts.
Model confidence: LA 53%Our line: LA -1.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -1.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
LA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
66%
DIFFERENCE
-13%
| SOURCE | LA | IND | LA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -205 | +182 | 65.9% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.102Net EPA / play+0.045
+0.077 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.051 (13)
-0.025 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (15)
46.4% (11)Offense success %44.3% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LA by 1.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Matthew Stafford4886 yd · 41 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
Sony Michel845 yd · 4 TD
Darrell Henderson688 yd · 5 TD
Robert Woods46 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@LAW4 2025 | IND 20, LA 27 | LA | W |
| LA@INDW4 2023 | LA 29, IND 23 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs IND
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 1.0. The market has LA at -4.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 27, IND 24. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -4.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 2, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, IND 20, LA 27 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.102 against IND +0.045.
