LA @ IND – Week 2 2021
LA
IND
LA
AWAY
27@24
LA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: LA 53%Our line: LA -1.0
LA
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.0
OUR LINE
-112
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.102Net EPA / play+0.045
+0.077Offense EPA / play+0.051
-0.025Defense EPA / play+0.006
46.4%Offense success %44.3%
44.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LA by 1.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -205 | +182 |
| Our fair price | -112 | +112 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
53%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
65%
DIFFERENCE
-13%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LA
Cooper Kupp
WR
439.5 SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
329.7 SEASON PPR
Van Jefferson
WR
168.2 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Matthew Stafford4886 yd · 41 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
Sony Michel845 yd · 4 TD
Darrell Henderson688 yd · 5 TD
Robert Woods46 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Cooper Kupp145 rec · 1947 yd · 16 TD
Van Jefferson50 rec · 802 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@LAW4 2025 | IND 20, LA 27 | LA | W |
| LA@INDW4 2023 | LA 29, IND 23 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 1.0. The market has LA at -4.0.
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, IND 20, LA 27 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.102 against IND +0.045.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
