ATL @ TB – Week 2 2021
ATL
TB
ATL
AWAY
25@48
TB BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: TB 69%Our line: TB -6.8
TB
PICK SIDE
-13.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.8
OUR LINE
-225
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.180Net EPA / play+0.217
-0.098Offense EPA / play+0.137
+0.082Defense EPA / play-0.080
40.4%Offense success %49.4%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 6.8. Actual: 23. Off by 16.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +582 | -772 |
| Our fair price | +225 | -225 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -13.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.14
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
86%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6 SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
176.6 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
Russell Gage66 rec · 770 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project TB by 6.8. The market has TB at -13.5.
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ATL -0.180 against TB +0.217.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
