Falcons vs Buccaneers – Week 2 2021
ATL
TB
ATL
AWAY
25@48
TB BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 25, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: TB 69%Our line: TB -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -13.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
87%
DIFFERENCE
-18%
| SOURCE | ATL | TB | TB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +582 | -772 | 86.9% |
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.180Net EPA / play+0.217
-0.098 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.137 (2)
+0.082 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.080 (4)
40.4% (29)Offense success %49.4% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 6.8. Actual: 23. Off by 16.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project TB by 6.8. The market has TB at -13.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, ATL 25, TB 48. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -13.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 2, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ATL -0.180 against TB +0.217.
