Chiefs vs Ravens – Week 2 2021
KC
BAL
KC
AWAY
35@36
BAL BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 35, Baltimore Ravens 36.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: KC 50%Our line: KC +0.1
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC +0.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
KC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
62%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
| SOURCE | KC | BAL | KC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -171 | +153 | 61.8% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.119Net EPA / play-0.065
+0.144 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (19)
+0.025 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (27)
51.1% (1)Offense success %46.4% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but BAL won. Projected margin was 0.1, the model overestimated by 0.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@KCW4 2025 | BAL 20, KC 37 | KC | W |
| BAL@KCW1 2024 | BAL 20, KC 27 | BAL | L |
| KC@BALW3 2020 | KC 34, BAL 20 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs BAL
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 0.1. The market has KC at -3.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, KC 35, BAL 36. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 2, the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, BAL 20, KC 37 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.119 against BAL -0.065.
