2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ BAL – Week 2 2021
KC
BAL
KC
AWAY
35@36
BAL +1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 50%Projected margin: 0.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
0.1
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but BAL won. Projected margin was 0.1 -- the model overestimated by 0.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
262.8SEASON PPR
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@KCW4 2025 | BAL 20, KC 37 | KC | W |
| BAL@KCW1 2024 | BAL 20, KC 27 | BAL | L |
| KC@BALW3 2020 | KC 34, BAL 20 | BAL | L |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES