CIN @ CHI – Week 2 2021
CIN
CHI
CIN
AWAY
17@20
CHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 53%Our line: CHI -1.1
CHI
PICK SIDE
-2.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.1
OUR LINE
-113
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.069Net EPA / play-0.127
+0.057Offense EPA / play-0.100
-0.012Defense EPA / play+0.026
44.2%Offense success %41.2%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 1.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -126 |
| Our fair price | +113 | -113 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.75
OUR NUMBER
53%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6 SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
287.9 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow4611 yd · 34 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon1205 yd · 13 TD
Samaje Perine246 yd · 1 TD
Joe Burrow118 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase81 rec · 1455 yd · 13 TD
Tee Higgins74 rec · 1091 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@CINW9 2025 | CHI 47, CIN 42 | CIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 1.1. The market has CHI at -2.0.
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 47, CIN 42 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against CHI -0.127.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
