Bengals vs Bears – Week 2 2021
CIN
CHI
CIN
AWAY
17@20
CHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 17, Chicago Bears 20.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 2 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 53%Our line: CHI -1.1
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -1.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
CHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
55%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
| SOURCE | CIN | CHI | CHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -126 | 54.5% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.069Net EPA / play-0.127
+0.057 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.100 (29)
-0.012 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (21)
44.2% (17)Offense success %41.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 1.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@CINW9 2025 | CHI 47, CIN 42 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 1.1. The market has CHI at -2.0.
Chicago Bears won, CIN 17, CHI 20. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -2.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 2, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 47, CIN 42 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against CHI -0.127.
