Bears vs Bengals – Week 9 2025
CHI
CIN
CHI
AWAY
47@42
CHI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 47, Cincinnati Bengals 42.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bears, 3 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 63%Our line: CIN -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -4.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.061Net EPA / play-0.138
+0.080 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (19)
+0.018 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
45.8% (9)Offense success %45.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but CHI won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 9.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@CHIW2 2021 | CIN 17, CHI 20 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 4.3. The market has CIN at +3.0.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 47, CIN 42. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at +3.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 9, the Chicago Bears were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 6.5 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CIN 17, CHI 20 in Week 2 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: CHI +0.061 against CIN -0.138.
