Cardinals vs Cowboys – Week 9 2025
ARI
DAL
ARI
AWAY
27@17
ARI BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 27, Dallas Cowboys 17.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cardinals, 6 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 62%Our line: DAL -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -4.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.070
-0.018 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (5)
+0.088 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.167 (32)
43.0% (22)Offense success %46.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but ARI won. Projected margin was 4.0, the model overestimated by 14.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@ARIW3 2023 | DAL 16, ARI 28 | DAL | L |
| ARI@DALW17 2021 | ARI 25, DAL 22 | DAL | L |
| ARI@DALW6 2020 | ARI 38, DAL 10 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 4.0. The market has DAL at -3.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 27, DAL 17. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -3.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 9, the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 8.3 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, DAL 16, ARI 28 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: ARI -0.107 against DAL -0.070.
