Jaguars vs Raiders – Week 9 2025
JAX
LV
JAX
AWAY
30@29
JAX BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 30, Las Vegas Raiders 29.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jaguars, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: JAX 64%Our line: JAX -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -4.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.240
+0.030 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.215 (32)
-0.105 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (21)
44.4% (15)Offense success %37.6% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 1. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@LVW16 2024 | JAX 14, LV 19 | JAX | L |
| LV@JAXW9 2022 | LV 20, JAX 27 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs LV
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 4.8. The market has JAX at -2.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 30, LV 29. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -2.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 9, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.0, 0.5 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, JAX 14, LV 19 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against LV -0.240.
