2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ LV – Week 9 2025
JAX
LV
JAX
AWAY
30@29
JAX +1
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 64%Projected margin: -1.5
JAX
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-1.5
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 1.5. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7SEASON PPR
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@LVW16 2024 | JAX 14, LV 19 | JAX | L |
| LV@JAXW9 2022 | LV 20, JAX 27 | LV | L |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES