JAX @ LV – Week 9 2025
JAX
LV
JAX
AWAY
30@29
JAX BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 64%Our line: JAX -4.8
JAX
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.8
OUR LINE
-176
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.240
+0.030Offense EPA / play-0.215
-0.105Defense EPA / play+0.024
44.4%Offense success %37.6%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 1. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +110 |
| Our fair price | -176 | +176 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2 SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9 SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Etienne1107 yd · 7 TD
T.Lawrence359 yd · 9 TD
B.Tuten307 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@LVW16 2024 | JAX 14, LV 19 | JAX | L |
| LV@JAXW9 2022 | LV 20, JAX 27 | LV | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 4.8. The market has JAX at -2.5.
The model projects 44.0 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, JAX 14, LV 19 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against LV -0.240.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
